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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."