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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.